Video, MP3, and PDF Flyer available here. Notes follow:  

• “Gathering clouds and raging storms”
• We are declining, in relative terms
• Relatively low ranking in longevity and infant mortality
• 20th Century was undeniably the “American Century”
  • WWII
    • GDP, military force, nuclear weapons
  • Cold War
    • USSR was a military superpower, but not an economic one
  • Post-Cold War
    • United States as the sole superpower (“hyperpower”)
• 2008
  • Approximately 25% world GDP
  • Population growth – projected to reach 420 million by 2050
  • Population will decline throughout many other parts of the world
• A superpower in relative decline
  • By 2040, superpowers will no longer be relevant
  • 3 fundamental explanations
    • The demands of globalization
    • Rise of competing nations and groups of nations
    • Failure of the United States to adequately confront world problems
• Globalization
  • Growing interconnectedness / interdependency
  • Many problems will be beyond the capability of individual nations to solve unilaterally
    • Environmental issues – increased use of fossil fuels in developing economies
  • Premium placed on multilateral cooperation
  • Technological accelerators
  • Creative destruction
    • 30 million jobs created, 29 million jobs lost
    • Auto industry vs. IT industry
  • Interconnectedness
    • Resources, Environment, Energy, Terrorism, Economics, Weapons Proliferation, Conflict, Sports and Entertainment, Internet, Immigration, Religion and Ideology, Culture, Crime, Disease
• Rise of Global Competitors
  • China, India, European Union, ASEAN, Japan, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia
• Problems at Home
  • Record levels of federal government debt
  • World’s largest external debtor country
    • More than $5 trillion deficit in goods between 2000 and 2008
  • Household debt has doubled over the past seven years, borrowed on equity
  • Entitlement explosion
    • Almost 1/4 of Americans will soon retire (fewer workers than retirees)
  • Out-of-control health-care spending
    • We spend more, but have a lower amount of coverage than other Western nations
    • We spend twice as much as other Western nations
  • Education deficit
    • Focus on K-12
  • Infrastructure deficiencies
    • Poor broadband penetration
  • Problems within the Beltway
    • Special interests vs. General interests
    • Campaign finance difficulties
    • Inability to tackle major problems in a non-partisan manner
  • Overextended international commitments
    • Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
    • Forward-deterrence strategy
    • Nation-building problems
• Plight of the Average American
  • Jobs
    • Unemployment and underemployment
    • Negative wealth effect
  • Home Equity
    • Many home owners “under water”
  • Retirement Accounts
    • S&P fell 37% in 2008
• The Future
  • Current problems are greater than most people realize; current recession the worst ever experienced by most Americans
  • American economy will continue to grow, but diminish in importance
  • Standard of living will be appreciably better
  • Prepare for a world where technological change and information creation will be more rapid than any other time in human history
  • Learn to cope with creative destruction
  • Prepare to change jobs several times during your working careers
  • Keep learning
  • Let the Gospel be an anchor and source of stability in a rapidly changing national and international environment
  • Prepare for very exciting times
  • Although military prowess will be important, our future importance will be based on the best features of democracy, capitalism, integrity, creativity, and Christian principles
  • George Bernard Shaw: “Some look at things that are, and ask why. I dream of things that never were and ask why not?”
  • Standing for Something by Gordon B. Hinckley
  • Be a part of an active, informed, and engaged citizenry
  • Become leaders