Earl H. Fry, Professor of Political Science, Brigham Young University
Video, MP3, and PDF Flyer available here. Notes follow:
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“Gathering clouds and raging storms”
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We are declining, in relative terms
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Relatively low ranking in longevity and infant mortality
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20th Century was undeniably the “American Century”
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WWII
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GDP, military force, nuclear weapons
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Cold War
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USSR was a military superpower, but not an economic one
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Post-Cold War
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United States as the sole superpower (“hyperpower”)
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2008
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Approximately 25% world GDP
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Population growth – projected to reach 420 million by 2050
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Population will decline throughout many other parts of the world
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A superpower in relative decline
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By 2040, superpowers will no longer be relevant
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3 fundamental explanations
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The demands of globalization
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Rise of competing nations and groups of nations
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Failure of the United States to adequately confront world problems
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Globalization
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Growing interconnectedness / interdependency
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Many problems will be beyond the capability of individual nations to solve unilaterally
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Environmental issues – increased use of fossil fuels in developing economies
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Premium placed on multilateral cooperation
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Technological accelerators
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Creative destruction
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30 million jobs created, 29 million jobs lost
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Auto industry vs. IT industry
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Interconnectedness
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Resources, Environment, Energy, Terrorism, Economics, Weapons Proliferation, Conflict, Sports and Entertainment, Internet, Immigration, Religion and Ideology, Culture, Crime, Disease
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Rise of Global Competitors
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China, India, European Union, ASEAN, Japan, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia
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Problems at Home
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Record levels of federal government debt
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World’s largest external debtor country
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More than $5 trillion deficit in goods between 2000 and 2008
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Household debt has doubled over the past seven years, borrowed on equity
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Entitlement explosion
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Almost 1/4 of Americans will soon retire (fewer workers than retirees)
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Out-of-control health-care spending
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We spend more, but have a lower amount of coverage than other Western nations
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We spend twice as much as other Western nations
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Education deficit
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Focus on K-12
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Infrastructure deficiencies
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Poor broadband penetration
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Problems within the Beltway
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Special interests vs. General interests
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Campaign finance difficulties
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Inability to tackle major problems in a non-partisan manner
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Overextended international commitments
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Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
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Forward-deterrence strategy
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Nation-building problems
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Plight of the Average American
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Jobs
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Unemployment and underemployment
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Negative wealth effect
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Home Equity
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Many home owners “under water”
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Retirement Accounts
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S&P fell 37% in 2008
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The Future
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Current problems are greater than most people realize; current recession the worst ever experienced by most Americans
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American economy will continue to grow, but diminish in importance
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Standard of living will be appreciably better
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Prepare for a world where technological change and information creation will be more rapid than any other time in human history
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Learn to cope with creative destruction
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Prepare to change jobs several times during your working careers
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Keep learning
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Let the Gospel be an anchor and source of stability in a rapidly changing national and international environment
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Prepare for very exciting times
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Although military prowess will be important, our future importance will be based on the best features of democracy, capitalism, integrity, creativity, and Christian principles
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George Bernard Shaw: “Some look at things that are, and ask why. I dream of things that never were and ask why not?”
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Standing for Something by Gordon B. Hinckley
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Be a part of an active, informed, and engaged citizenry
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Become leaders
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